On its 100th birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming
Benjamin Franta: Someone chipped the patty brand-new certificates reveal that American lubricant writ gigantic was warned of global warming at its 100 th birthday party.
It was a typical November day in New York City. The time: 1959. Robert Dunlop, 50 years old and photographed afterwards as clean-shaven, mane carefully parted, his earnest appearance donning horn-rimmed glasses, delivered for the purposes of the Ionian columns of Columbia University’s iconic Low Library. He was a guest of honor for a grand moment: the centennial of the American oil industry.
Over 300 government officials, economists, historians, scientists, and manufacture executives were present for the Energy and Man symposium- organised by the American Petroleum Institute and the Columbia Graduate School of Business- and Dunlop was to address the entire congregation on the “prime mover” of the last century- vigor- and its major source: oil. As President of the Sun Oil Company, he knew the business well, and as a director of the American Petroleum Institute- the industry’s largest and oldest trade association in the land of Uncle Sam- he was responsible for representing the interests of all those numerous oilmen mustered around him.
Four others participated Dunlop at the rostrum the working day, one of whom had uttered the passage from California- and Hungary before that. The atomic weapon physicist Edward Teller had, by 1959, become ostracized by the scientific community for divulging my honourable colleagues J. Robert Oppenheimer, but he retained the include of industry and government. Teller’s task that November fourth was to address the crowd on” energy blueprints of the future ,” and his statements carried an surprising urge:
Ladies and gentlemen, I am to talk to you about vigor in the future. I will start by telling you why I believe that the energy resources of the past must be supplemented. First of all, these energy resources will run short as we use more and more of the fossil fuel. But I would […] like to mention another reason why we likely have to look for additional gasoline renders. And this, strangely, is the question of infecting the ambiance. [….] Whenever you burn conventional fuel, you compose carbon dioxide. [….] The carbon dioxide is invisible, it is transparent, you can’t reek it, “its not” risky to state, so why should one worry about it ? em>
Carbon dioxide has a strange asset. It gives visible light but it absorbs the infrared radioactivity which is emitted from the earth. Its presence in the environment makes a greenhouse effect [….] It has been calculated that a temperature rise corresponding to a 10 per cent increase in carbon dioxide is able to defrosted the icecap and submerge New York. All the coastal metropolitans would be covered, and since a considerable percentage of the human race was living in coastal regions, I think that this chemical pollutant is more serious than most people tend to believe . em>
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How, precisely, Mr. Dunlop and the rest of the audience greeted is unknown, but it’s hard to gues this being welcome bulletin. After his talk, Teller was also invited to” summarize briefly the hazard from increased carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere in this century .” The physicist, as if mulling a numerical approximation question, reacted:
At present the carbon dioxide in the flavor has risen by 2 per cent over regular. By 1970, it will be perhaps 4 per cent of the members, by 1980, 8 per cent, by 1990, 16 per cent of the members [ about 360 portions per million, by Teller’s accounting ],< em> if we keep on with our exponential rise in the use of purely conventional oils. By that time, there will be a serious added deterrent for the radioactivity leaving the earth. Our planet will get a little warmer. It is hard to say whether it will be 2 positions Fahrenheit or only one or 5.
But when the temperature does rise by a few grades over the whole globe, there is a likelihood that the icecaps will start softening and high levels of the atlantic provinces will begin to rise. Well, I don’t know whether they will report the Empire State Building or not, but everyone can calculate it by looking at the map and noting that the icecaps over Greenland and over Antarctica are perhaps five thousand hoofs thick-skulled . em>
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And so, at its hundredth birthday defendant, American oil was warned of its civilization-destroying potential.
Talk about a buzzkill.
How did the petroleum industry respond? Eight years later, on a freezing, clear day in March, Robert Dunlop trod the corridors of the U.S. Congress. The 1967 petroleum embargo was weeks apart, and the Senate was investigating the potential of electric vehicles. Dunlop, vouching now as the Chairman of the Board of the American Petroleum Institute, constituted the issues to,” tomorrow’s car: electric or gasoline powered ?” His preferred answer was the latter 😛 TAGEND
We in the oil industry are convinced that by the time a practical electric car can be mass-produced and sold, it will not enjoys any meaningful advantage from an airborne pollutants position. Emissions from internal-combustion engines will have long since been held . em>
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Dunlop went on to describe progress in controlling carbon monoxide gas, nitrous oxide, and hydrocarbon emissions from automobiles. Absent from his register? The pollutant “hes been” warned of years before: carbon dioxide.
We might deduce that the odorless gas simply elapsed under Robert Dunlop’s nose unnoticed. But less than a year later, the American Petroleum Institute calmly received a report on air pollution it had commissioned from the Stanford Research Institute, and its alarm on carbon dioxide was direct:
Significant temperature changes are almost certain to occur by the year 2000, and these could are carrying out climate change. […] there seems to be no doubt that the health risks damage caused to environmental purposes “couldve been” severe. […] pollutants which we generally discount because they have little neighbourhood gist, CO 2 and submicron particles, is a possibility the cause of serious world-wide environmental changes.
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Thus, by 1968, American oil held in its entrusts yet another notice of its makes’ world-altering side effect, one affirming that global warming was not just cause for the investigations and concern, but a reality needing corrective activity:” Past and current examines of CO 2 are detailed ,” the Stanford Research Institute cautioned.” What is absent, however, is […] work toward methods in which CO 2 emissions would be brought under control .”
This early history decorates the American petroleum industry’s long-running awareness of the planetary warming caused by its concoctions. Teller’s warning, revealed in documentation I acquired while searching archives, is another brick in a growing wall of evidence.
In the closing eras of those rosy 1950 s, Robert Dunlop may have been one of the first oilmen to be warned of the misfortune now looming before us. By the time he started this macrocosm in 1995, the American Petroleum Institute he once preceded was denying the environment discipline it had been informed of decades before, assaulting the Intergovernmental committee of experts on Climate change issues, and contending environment programs wherever they grow.
This is a history of options obligated, courses not taken, and the fall from grace of one of the greatest organizations- lubricant, the “prime mover”- ever to tread the earth. Whether it’s also a autobiography of redemption, however partial, remains to be seen.
American oil’s awareness of global warming- and its plot of silence, fraud, and blockage- proceeds farther than any one company. It extends beyond( though includes) ExxonMobil. The manufacture is incriminated to its core by the history of its largest congresswoman, the American Petroleum Institute.
It is now too late to stop a great deal of change to our planet’s climate and its global payload of cancer, devastation, and fatality. But we are in a position battle to halting climate change as quickly as is practicable, and we are in a position uncover the history to seeing how we got here. There are lessons to be learned, and there is justice to be served.
Benjamin Franta (@ BenFranta) is a PhD student in history of science at Stanford University who studies the history of climate change issues scientific and politics. He has a PhD in applied physics from Harvard University and is a former investigate colleague at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government . em>
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